Influenza

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Influenza Pandemic: A Matter of When-Not If

There is no current evidence that Americans are about to face an influenza pandemic. That's the good news. The bad news: Most experts say it’s not a matter of if but when we will have to contend with an influenza pandemic. Next month, next year or five years from now, it's just a matter of time.

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control (CDC) estimates that 1.8 million Americans could lose their lives during a category 5 (worst-case) influenza pandemic. That assumes 30 percent of Americans contract the illness and that 2 percent of them are fatalities. That worst-case scenario assumes that the most effective tool—a vaccine to fight that specific influenza strain—would be unavailable during at least the early stages of a pandemic.

According to a new CDC report, Americans will need to take a number of steps to help mitigate a serious pandemic:

Isolation and treatment of those with the influenza, either in homes or healthcare settings, depending on the severity of the illness and the capacity of the healthcare infrastructure. Voluntary home quarantine of those with confirmed or probable influenza. Dismissal of students from public and private schools and universities, including cancellation of all school-based activities and childcare programs. • Use of social-distancing measures to reduce contact between adults, including cancellation of large public gatherings, increased telecommuting and modifications to workplace environments.

When this happens in our area, the association will try to follow the CDC recommendations as completely as possible, including postponing meetings and social events until the contagion has passed. Residents interested in developing a plan for the association to provide support to quarantined members, augment home health care services, meet day care needs, and prepare our community for other pandemic-related needs should contact the manager or a board member for information about forming a committee.

The CDC report can be accessed at http://www.flu.gov/professional/community/index.html#mitigation.

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